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Center for Macroeconomics (CME)

BCG Center for Macroeconomics publishes economics commentary in external publications and technical research for our clients.

We translate global macro for senior executives and investors in all industries and all geographies.

CME Research portal        subscribe   about CME

BCG/BHI | February 26, 2024

An Era of Tightness: Thinking Tactically and Structurally About the Cooling US Labor Market

Tactical fears for the US labor market have dominated economic debate, but this misses the labor market’s structural underpinnings. We are in an era of tightness that was briefly interrupted, not caused, by the pandemic.

Fortune | February 12, 2024

Here’s How the U.S., Europe, and China Are Faring in the Post-Pandemic Race for Economic Growth

Despite the gloomy expectations of recent years, global growth has held up relatively well. However, a succession of shocks–the pandemic, inflation, and the Ukraine war–has tested the resilience of the U.S., Europe, and China in disparate ways.

BCG/BHI | February 14, 2024

Reversal of Fortunes: Taking Stock of Economic Resilience in the U.S., Eurozone, and China

A clearer picture has emerged of the structural legacies of recent shocks on major economies. What should be considered when testing for economic resilience?

World Economic Forum | August 31, 2023

Why We Need to Be Realistic About Generative AI’s Economic Impact

Technology’s impact on productivity growth has been consistently overstated — are analysts repeating that mistake with generative AI?

Harvard Business Review | July 21, 2023

What Happens After the U.S. Economy’s Soft Landing?

The U.S. appears to have skirted a recession, but leaders should expect a new disequilibrium to emerge.

Technology and Productivity Growth

We continually publish thematic research

Technology_2022.09
World Economic Forum | August 31, 2023

Why We Need to Be Realistic About Generative AI’s Economic Impact

Technology’s impact on productivity growth has been consistently overstated — are analysts repeating that mistake with generative AI?

Fortune | January 25, 2022

Has Tech Truly Disrupted the Economy? Not So Much So Far

Digital disruption may be an accomplished fact for consumers enjoying ever more innovation, and for the firms driving it, but there is little evidence of macroeconomic disruption.

World Economic Forum | October 19, 2021

Why We Shouldn’t Overstate the Pandemic’s Effect on Productivity Growth

A boost to productivity growth is a commonly cited macroeconomic silver lining of the COVID-19 crisis. After lockdowns and social distancing forced consumers and firms to adapt to digital channels, even for services a credible narrative of a productivity tailwind has emerged.

Live Events & Podcasts

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Venture Capital

Live event on venture capital hosted by the BCG Center for Macroeconomics

BCG Henderson Institute | March 21, 2022

The Power Law with Sebastian Mallaby and Howard Morgan: Venture Capital Event Transcript

Sebastian Mallaby discusses his recently published book, The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future, while Howard Morgan brings his practical perspective as a venture capitalist in a conversation moderated by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s global chief economist.

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Global Monetary Order

Jeffrey Garten was Dean of the Yale School of Management until 2005, before that Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, and before that a Wall Street investment banker. In his new book, he tells a detailed narrative of the forces and protagonists that led up to the “Nixon Shock” and the breakdown in the gold standard that altered the post-war economic order.

30 Minutes | July 28, 2021

Three Days at Camp David with Jeffrey E. Garten

“The United States simply could not hold up the world the way it had before. So, this inflection was both an economic and a political one." "I don't know how you call the inflection point, but I would say that we are nearing one.”

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Creative Destruction

Philippe Aghion is professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Collège de France and INSEAD, and formerly of Harvard University.

23 Minutes | June 11, 2021

The Power of Creative Destruction with Philippe Aghion

"My dream capitalism is a capitalism that will be as innovative as America's and as protective and inclusive as the Danish system. And I think it's possible."

Inflation, Rates, Recession Risk

We continually publish tactical research

CME Glass Buildings
Fortune | December 11, 2023

Economic Pessimists’ Bet on a 2023 Recession Failed. Why Are They Doubling Down in 2024?

2023 has not been kind to the pessimists who shape the public’s perception of the U.S. economy. We see reason to double down in 2024 on our own far more optimistic stance we’ve held for over a year.

Harvard Business Review | July 21, 2023

What Happens After the U.S. Economy’s Soft Landing?

The U.S. appears to have skirted a recession, but leaders should expect a new disequilibrium to emerge.

World Economic Forum | February 7, 2022

How a Muddled Inflation Debate Imperils Green Investment

The thrust of the public debate on inflation is that price growth is here to stay, that policymakers are “behind the curve”, and that the well-anchored inflation regime is crumbling. And, because of this, fiscal policy must step back from making bold new investments.