We translate global macro for senior executives and investors in all industries and all geographies.
Tactical fears for the US labor market have dominated economic debate, but this misses the labor market’s structural underpinnings. We are in an era of tightness that was briefly interrupted, not caused, by the pandemic.
Despite the gloomy expectations of recent years, global growth has held up relatively well. However, a succession of shocks–the pandemic, inflation, and the Ukraine war–has tested the resilience of the U.S., Europe, and China in disparate ways.
A clearer picture has emerged of the structural legacies of recent shocks on major economies. What should be considered when testing for economic resilience?
Technology’s impact on productivity growth has been consistently overstated — are analysts repeating that mistake with generative AI?
The U.S. appears to have skirted a recession, but leaders should expect a new disequilibrium to emerge.
We continually publish thematic research
Technology’s impact on productivity growth has been consistently overstated — are analysts repeating that mistake with generative AI?
Digital disruption may be an accomplished fact for consumers enjoying ever more innovation, and for the firms driving it, but there is little evidence of macroeconomic disruption.
A boost to productivity growth is a commonly cited macroeconomic silver lining of the COVID-19 crisis. After lockdowns and social distancing forced consumers and firms to adapt to digital channels, even for services a credible narrative of a productivity tailwind has emerged.
Live event on venture capital hosted by the BCG Center for Macroeconomics
Sebastian Mallaby discusses his recently published book, The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future, while Howard Morgan brings his practical perspective as a venture capitalist in a conversation moderated by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s global chief economist.
Jeffrey Garten was Dean of the Yale School of Management until 2005, before that Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, and before that a Wall Street investment banker. In his new book, he tells a detailed narrative of the forces and protagonists that led up to the “Nixon Shock” and the breakdown in the gold standard that altered the post-war economic order.
“The United States simply could not hold up the world the way it had before. So, this inflection was both an economic and a political one." "I don't know how you call the inflection point, but I would say that we are nearing one.”
Philippe Aghion is professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Collège de France and INSEAD, and formerly of Harvard University.
"My dream capitalism is a capitalism that will be as innovative as America's and as protective and inclusive as the Danish system. And I think it's possible."
We continually publish tactical research
2023 has not been kind to the pessimists who shape the public’s perception of the U.S. economy. We see reason to double down in 2024 on our own far more optimistic stance we’ve held for over a year.
The U.S. appears to have skirted a recession, but leaders should expect a new disequilibrium to emerge.
The thrust of the public debate on inflation is that price growth is here to stay, that policymakers are “behind the curve”, and that the well-anchored inflation regime is crumbling. And, because of this, fiscal policy must step back from making bold new investments.
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