This research was published on July 17, 2026 Over the past year or so, obituary writers have taken aim at the U.S. dollar. They’ve spilled ink over the greenback’s sliding valuation, griped about the lack of “safe haven” correlations after “Liberation Day” (the dollar failed to rally as rates rose and stocks fell), and called China’s […]

This research was published on March 20, 2026 When new risks to the economy emerge, the editors at Harvard Business Review often ask us to comment. With war raging in the Gulf, HBR today published our take on U.S. recession risk — the question they have put to us most frequently over the past few […]

This research was published on April 10, 2025 On April 2, President Trump followed through on campaign promises to steeply hike tariffs on U.S. trading partners, taking the average effective tariff rate to around 23%, a near 10-fold increase of the rate last year. As sharp and severe selloffs in financial markets underline the global […]

Today’s executives are navigating a landscape where risks are up and visibility is down. Trump’s deliberate uncertainty has added new risks, but the death of the current economic expansion is not as clear cut as current public discourse likes to paint it.

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, joined host Barry Ritholtz to discuss the pitfalls of traditional economic research and the benefits of the eclectic, narratives-based approach outlined in his and BCG Sr. Economist Paul Swartz’s book.

Casting the economy as a “disaster” was electorally effective, yet no freshly elected president has entered office with a stronger economic backdrop in recent history.