We translate global macro for senior executives and investors in all industries and all geographies.
Good macro—the confluence of tailwinds that played out over the past 40 years or so in the real economy, in finance, and in the global realm—has experienced significant stress in recent years.
Predictions of technology-driven job destruction have a long history and correspondingly, a long record of failure. Angst about worker obsolescence ebbs and flows with each new generation of technology.
The U.S. economy grew at a robust 2.8% in the second quarter, far faster than economists’ predictions of just 2%. The miss is reminiscent of a long losing streak for doomsaying about the U.S. economy.
Understanding macroeconomic risk—the potential for negative or positive change, both cyclical and structural—is essential to responding to threats with rational optimism.
Washington’s addiction to deficit spending is unlikely to change, no matter the electoral outcome in November. But in today's macroeconomic environment, fiscal consolidation can counterintuitively deliver more growth.
How to assess true macroeconomic risk
Visit the book website for Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk for reviews, press coverage, live events, podcasts and more.
Understanding macroeconomic risk—the potential for negative or positive change, both cyclical and structural—is essential to responding to threats with rational optimism.
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, joined host Demetri Kofinas to discuss how to assess macroeconomic risk without relying on broken models, pervasive doom-mongering, and whipsawing data prints.
Live event hosted by Fast Company
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, discussed the economy in the context of an election year at 2024’s Innovation Festival.
Webinar hosted by ECNY moderated by Frank Brosens of Taconic Capital
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, led a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York to discuss his new book.
Podcast hosted by Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, joined the Inside Economics team to share his views on the economy and discuss his newly published book.
Podcast hosted by Macro Hive CEO and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, and Paul Swartz, Senior Economist, joined host Bilal Hafeez to discuss their new book, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.
Live event on venture capital hosted by the BCG Center for Macroeconomics
Sebastian Mallaby discusses his recently published book, The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future, while Howard Morgan brings his practical perspective as a venture capitalist in a conversation moderated by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s global chief economist.
We continually publish tactical research
2023 has not been kind to the pessimists who shape the public’s perception of the U.S. economy. We see reason to double down in 2024 on our own far more optimistic stance we’ve held for over a year.
The U.S. appears to have skirted a recession, but leaders should expect a new disequilibrium to emerge.
The thrust of the public debate on inflation is that price growth is here to stay, that policymakers are “behind the curve”, and that the well-anchored inflation regime is crumbling. And, because of this, fiscal policy must step back from making bold new investments.
We continually publish thematic research
Technology’s impact on productivity growth has been consistently overstated — are analysts repeating that mistake with generative AI?
Digital disruption may be an accomplished fact for consumers enjoying ever more innovation, and for the firms driving it, but there is little evidence of macroeconomic disruption.
A boost to productivity growth is a commonly cited macroeconomic silver lining of the COVID-19 crisis. After lockdowns and social distancing forced consumers and firms to adapt to digital channels, even for services a credible narrative of a productivity tailwind has emerged.
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