BCG Henderson Institute

Center for Macroeconomics (CME)

BCG Center for Macroeconomics publishes economics commentary in external publications and technical research for our clients.

We translate global macro for senior executives and investors in all industries and all geographies.

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Fortune | September 3, 2024

What to Expect for Inflation, Employment, and Trade in the ‘Tight 20s’

Good macro—the confluence of tailwinds that played out over the past 40 years or so in the real economy, in finance, and in the global realm—has experienced significant stress in recent years.

World Economic Forum | August 15, 2024

Why AI Will Not Lead to a World Without Work

Predictions of technology-driven job destruction have a long history and correspondingly, a long record of failure. Angst about worker obsolescence ebbs and flows with each new generation of technology.

Time Magazine | July 31, 2024

What’s Wrong With Economics

The U.S. economy grew at a robust 2.8% in the second quarter, far faster than economists’ predictions of just 2%. The miss is reminiscent of a long losing streak for doomsaying about the U.S. economy.

Harvard Business Review | June 11, 2024

How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk

Understanding macroeconomic risk—the potential for negative or positive change, both cyclical and structural—is essential to responding to threats with rational optimism.

The Hill | May 24, 2024

How Lower Deficits Can Again Drive More Growth

Washington’s addiction to deficit spending is unlikely to change, no matter the electoral outcome in November. But in today's macroeconomic environment, fiscal consolidation can counterintuitively deliver more growth.

New Book: Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

How to assess true macroeconomic risk

Harvard Business Review Press JULY 2024
Books | July 9, 2024

Book Website | Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

Visit the book website for Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk for reviews, press coverage, live events, podcasts and more.

Harvard Business Review | June 11, 2024

How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk

Understanding macroeconomic risk—the potential for negative or positive change, both cyclical and structural—is essential to responding to threats with rational optimism.

57 Minutes | July 8, 2024

Hidden Forces Podcast

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, joined host Demetri Kofinas to discuss how to assess macroeconomic risk without relying on broken models, pervasive doom-mongering, and whipsawing data prints.

Live Events & Podcasts

1/5

Fast Company Innovation Festival

Live event hosted by Fast Company

Fast Company | September 18, 2024

What’s at Stake This Election Year

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, discussed the economy in the context of an election year at 2024’s Innovation Festival.  

2/5

The Economic Club of New York

Webinar hosted by ECNY moderated by Frank Brosens of Taconic Capital

ECNY | September 16, 2024

Author Series: Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, led a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York to discuss his new book.

3/5

Moody's Inside Economics Podcast

Podcast hosted by Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi

60 Minutes | July 12, 2024

Inside Economics: Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, joined the Inside Economics team to share his views on the economy and discuss his newly published book.

4/5

Macro Hive Podcast

Podcast hosted by Macro Hive CEO and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez

58 Minutes | July 12, 2024

Macro Hive Podcast: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, and Paul Swartz, Senior Economist, joined host Bilal Hafeez to discuss their new book, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.

5/5

Venture Capital

Live event on venture capital hosted by the BCG Center for Macroeconomics

BCG Henderson Institute | March 21, 2022

The Power Law with Sebastian Mallaby and Howard Morgan: Venture Capital Event Transcript

Sebastian Mallaby discusses his recently published book, The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future, while Howard Morgan brings his practical perspective as a venture capitalist in a conversation moderated by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s global chief economist.

Inflation, Rates, Recession Risk

We continually publish tactical research

CME Glass Buildings
Fortune | December 11, 2023

Economic Pessimists’ Bet on a 2023 Recession Failed. Why Are They Doubling Down in 2024?

2023 has not been kind to the pessimists who shape the public’s perception of the U.S. economy. We see reason to double down in 2024 on our own far more optimistic stance we’ve held for over a year.

Harvard Business Review | July 21, 2023

What Happens After the U.S. Economy’s Soft Landing?

The U.S. appears to have skirted a recession, but leaders should expect a new disequilibrium to emerge.

World Economic Forum | February 7, 2022

How a Muddled Inflation Debate Imperils Green Investment

The thrust of the public debate on inflation is that price growth is here to stay, that policymakers are “behind the curve”, and that the well-anchored inflation regime is crumbling. And, because of this, fiscal policy must step back from making bold new investments.

Technology and Productivity Growth

We continually publish thematic research

Technology_2022.09
World Economic Forum | August 31, 2023

Why We Need to Be Realistic About Generative AI’s Economic Impact

Technology’s impact on productivity growth has been consistently overstated — are analysts repeating that mistake with generative AI?

Fortune | January 25, 2022

Has Tech Truly Disrupted the Economy? Not So Much So Far

Digital disruption may be an accomplished fact for consumers enjoying ever more innovation, and for the firms driving it, but there is little evidence of macroeconomic disruption.

World Economic Forum | October 19, 2021

Why We Shouldn’t Overstate the Pandemic’s Effect on Productivity Growth

A boost to productivity growth is a commonly cited macroeconomic silver lining of the COVID-19 crisis. After lockdowns and social distancing forced consumers and firms to adapt to digital channels, even for services a credible narrative of a productivity tailwind has emerged.