We translate global macro for senior executives and investors in all industries and all geographies.
The collapse of SVB raises a quandary for the Fed, which must continue to fight inflation while making sure that rising rates don’t further undermine financial stability.
This presentation was given to principle investor and private equity clients on March 7, 2023.
While a soft landing may sound enticing, firms are facing a number of challenges. The typical recession playbook of retreating and cutting to fight another day is not suited for the challenges of today’s strong economy.
We continually publish thematic research
Digital disruption may be an accomplished fact for consumers enjoying ever more innovation, and for the firms driving it, but there is little evidence of macroeconomic disruption.
A boost to productivity growth is a commonly cited macroeconomic silver lining of the COVID-19 crisis. After lockdowns and social distancing forced consumers and firms to adapt to digital channels, even for services a credible narrative of a productivity tailwind has emerged. When such a structural tailwind is considered alongside the cyclical productivity gains associated […]
The idea that technology drives productivity growth is both a commonplace and a common frustration. Economies operating at or near the technological frontier have long seen sagging trend growth rates despite marvelous technology — from artificial intelligence to bioengineering to robotics — proliferating at breakneck speed.
Live event on venture capital hosted by the BCG Center for Macroeconomics
Sebastian Mallaby discusses his recently published book, The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future, while Howard Morgan brings his practical perspective as a venture capitalist in a conversation moderated by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s global chief economist.
Jeffrey Garten was Dean of the Yale School of Management until 2005, before that Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, and before that a Wall Street investment banker. In his new book, he tells a detailed narrative of the forces and protagonists that led up to the “Nixon Shock” and the breakdown in the gold standard that altered the post-war economic order.
“The United States simply could not hold up the world the way it had before. So, this inflection was both an economic and a political one." "I don't know how you call the inflection point, but I would say that we are nearing one.”
Philippe Aghion is professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Collège de France and INSEAD, and formerly of Harvard University.
"My dream capitalism is a capitalism that will be as innovative as America's and as protective and inclusive as the Danish system. And I think it's possible."
We continually publish tactical research
The macroeconomic outlook continues to dominate the executive agenda. Last year, when demand overshot and supply chains sputtered, many firms discovered pricing power they never experienced before.
The thrust of the public debate on inflation is that price growth is here to stay, that policymakers are “behind the curve”, and that the well-anchored inflation regime is crumbling. And, because of this, fiscal policy must step back from making bold new investments.
Short-term interest rates have risen sharply this year, driven by expectations that the Fed will raise rates to near 3% by early next year as it responds to stubbornly high inflation. Besides the resulting uncertainty and rattling of markets, a bigger fear is growing that the U.S. economy could be permanently returning to damaging higher long rates.