Quantum computers are expected to massively accelerate the way we tackle complex, high-impact problems, with huge implications for companies’ bottom line. BCG’s prior study of more than 100 industry use cases—such as drug discovery, catalyst design, and logistics optimization—showed that, at maturity, quantum computing can create up to $3.5 trillion of economic uplift. The question is: When?

To determine the answer, we studied the quantum activities of more than 200 large companies and conducted our second biennial enterprise adoption survey. The results showed sustained growth in enterprise demand along with significant tech breakthroughs in hardware and error correction. Taken together, these developments indicate that quantum’s commercial inflection point—where the technology starts creating commercial value for end users—can arrive by 2030.

Despite this flurry of activity, however, we’ve also observed an emerging risk that new, powerful quantum machines may not live up to their potential to deliver value. Though theoretical speed-ups in the future are realistic, today’s concrete application algorithms remain sparse compared to ambitious hardware roadmaps. The potential outcome is the arrival of staggering quantum capability that isn’t all that useful to solving real-world problems. Closing this gap between potential and practicality requires academic researchers, tech companies, enterprise end users, and domain experts all collaborating on structural responses, as well as enterprises coordinating with the tech providers to build targeted applications.

For CEOs looking to engage with quantum now with an eye on value in the future, it’s important to understand that the companies that define high-value use cases, build translational capability, and actively steer innovation today will be the ones that determine where quantum creates value—and who ultimately captures it.