A continued expansion remains by far the most likely outcome in 2025.

Though the pandemic has come and gone, the same cannot be said of the gyrations it has caused in consumer spending patterns.

Tactical fears for the US labor market have dominated economic debate, but this misses the labor market’s structural underpinnings. We are in an era of tightness that was briefly interrupted, not caused, by the pandemic.

A clearer picture has emerged of the structural legacies of recent shocks on major economies.

The 2024 election will continue to drive the news cycle before November, occupying an outsized share of economic discourse.

As the year gets underway and the pessimism of 2023 ages, we ask what is priced in for 2024 and compare that with our own views.