Martin Reeves
Mihnea Moldoveanu
Adam Job
Center for Macroeconomics (CME)
BCG Center for Macroeconomics publishes economics commentary in external publications and technical research for our clients.
We translate global macro for senior executives and investors in all industries and all geographies.
Learning the Art of the Tariff Deal
The global trade order is likely to be strained in ways unseen in decades—requiring continuous reassessment.
25 Questions for 2025: Avoiding Complacency in a Strong Economy
A continued expansion remains by far the most likely outcome in 2025.
Despite Inflation, U.S. Consumers Are 5% Better off Than in 2019—Here’s Why They Don’t Feel That Way
The public debate about inflation has caught on to what economists have long known: Price change—aka inflation—and prices are not the same thing.
Why AI Will Not Lead to a World Without Work
Predictions of technology-driven job destruction have a long history and correspondingly, a long record of failure. Angst about worker obsolescence ebbs and flows with each new generation of technology.
What’s Wrong With Economics
The U.S. economy grew at a robust 2.8% in the second quarter, far faster than economists’ predictions of just 2%. The miss is reminiscent of a long losing streak for doomsaying about the U.S. economy.
New Book: Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
How to assess true macroeconomic risk
Book Website | Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
Visit the book website for Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk for reviews, press coverage, live events, podcasts and more.
How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk
Understanding macroeconomic risk—the potential for negative or positive change, both cyclical and structural—is essential to responding to threats with rational optimism.
Hidden Forces Podcast
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, joined host Demetri Kofinas to discuss how to assess macroeconomic risk without relying on broken models, pervasive doom-mongering, and whipsawing data prints.
Live Events & Podcasts
Fast Company Innovation Festival
Live event hosted by Fast Company
What’s at Stake This Election Year
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, discussed the economy in the context of an election year at 2024’s Innovation Festival.
The Economic Club of New York
Webinar hosted by ECNY moderated by Frank Brosens of Taconic Capital
Author Series: Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, led a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York to discuss his new book.
Moody's Inside Economics Podcast
Podcast hosted by Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi
Inside Economics: Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, joined the Inside Economics team to share his views on the economy and discuss his newly published book.
Macro Hive Podcast
Podcast hosted by Macro Hive CEO and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Podcast: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, and Paul Swartz, Senior Economist, joined host Bilal Hafeez to discuss their new book, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.
Venture Capital
Live event on venture capital hosted by the BCG Center for Macroeconomics
The Power Law with Sebastian Mallaby and Howard Morgan: Venture Capital Event Transcript
Sebastian Mallaby discusses his recently published book, The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future, while Howard Morgan brings his practical perspective as a venture capitalist in a conversation moderated by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s global chief economist.
Inflation, Rates, Recession Risk
We continually publish tactical research
Economic Pessimists’ Bet on a 2023 Recession Failed. Why Are They Doubling Down in 2024?
2023 has not been kind to the pessimists who shape the public’s perception of the U.S. economy. We see reason to double down in 2024 on our own far more optimistic stance we’ve held for over a year.
What Happens After the U.S. Economy’s Soft Landing?
The U.S. appears to have skirted a recession, but leaders should expect a new disequilibrium to emerge.
How a Muddled Inflation Debate Imperils Green Investment
The thrust of the public debate on inflation is that price growth is here to stay, that policymakers are “behind the curve”, and that the well-anchored inflation regime is crumbling. And, because of this, fiscal policy must step back from making bold new investments.
Technology and Productivity Growth
We continually publish thematic research
Why We Need to Be Realistic About Generative AI’s Economic Impact
Technology’s impact on productivity growth has been consistently overstated — are analysts repeating that mistake with generative AI?
Has Tech Truly Disrupted the Economy? Not So Much So Far
Digital disruption may be an accomplished fact for consumers enjoying ever more innovation, and for the firms driving it, but there is little evidence of macroeconomic disruption.
Why We Shouldn’t Overstate the Pandemic’s Effect on Productivity Growth
A boost to productivity growth is a commonly cited macroeconomic silver lining of the COVID-19 crisis. After lockdowns and social distancing forced consumers and firms to adapt to digital channels, even for services a credible narrative of a productivity tailwind has emerged.