BCG Henderson Institute

Paul Swartz

Senior Economist

Expertise

Education

  • Syracuse University

BHI Affiliation
Location
New York
Contact

Paul Swartz

Senior Economist

Paul Swartz is a senior economist and executive director at Boston Consulting Group’s Center for Macroeconomics.

He frequently speaks about global macroeconomic developments with leaders, investors, and policy makers. And has published in outlets including TIME, WSJ, Harvard Business Review, World Economic Forum, Fortune, CFR.org, and others.

Paul is co-author (with Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak) of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024). The book calls out pervasive doomsaying in public discourse about the economy and demonstrates how executives can navigate real, financial, and global risks more productively.

Paul previously worked at Sanford C. Bernstein where he covered the macroeconomy and markets for institutional investors. Earlier in his career, Paul worked within the Investment Strategy Group at Goldman Sachs, the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and the research department at Bridgewater Associates.

He serves as the vice-chair to the Dean’s Advisory Board (College of Art & Sciences) at Syracuse University.

Recent Work

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Fortune | October 23, 2024

Despite Inflation, U.S. Consumers Are 5% Better off Than in 2019—Here’s Why They Don’t Feel That Way

The public debate about inflation has caught on to what economists have long known: Price change—aka inflation—and prices are not the same thing.

Fortune | September 3, 2024

What to Expect for Inflation, Employment, and Trade in the ‘Tight 20s’

Good macro—the confluence of tailwinds that played out over the past 40 years or so in the real economy, in finance, and in the global realm—has experienced significant stress in recent years.

World Economic Forum | August 15, 2024

Why AI Will Not Lead to a World Without Work

Predictions of technology-driven job destruction have a long history and correspondingly, a long record of failure. Angst about worker obsolescence ebbs and flows with each new generation of technology.

Time Magazine | July 31, 2024

What’s Wrong With Economics

The U.S. economy grew at a robust 2.8% in the second quarter, far faster than economists’ predictions of just 2%. The miss is reminiscent of a long losing streak for doomsaying about the U.S. economy.

58 Minutes | July 12, 2024

Macro Hive Podcast: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, BCG’s Global Chief Economist, and Paul Swartz, Senior Economist, joined host Bilal Hafeez to discuss their new book, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.

BCG Henderson Institute | July 9, 2024

Book Website | Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

Visit the book website for Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk for reviews, press coverage, live events, podcasts and more.