In a nutshell, what is special about quantum computing?

Quantum computing is an emerging platform built on fundamentally new hardware (made of ion traps, superconductors or photons) that leverages properties of quantum mechanics to solve problems that cannot be calculated in reasonable time frames (that is less than the age of universe) with classical computers. Quantum computers can, for example, search an almost infinite space of possible solutions and use interference patterns to “settle” on a global optimum solution. While quantum computers will one day represent a breakthrough in solving specific classes of problems, they will complement rather than replace classical computers, which will always solve deterministic problems more efficiently.

How far has it progressed and when will we see commercial applications?

It may be a decade or more before quantum computers fully overcome important technical limitations, such as sensitivity to noise. In the meantime, today’s “noisy intermediate-scale” quantum computers can be used in research applications related to materials design, molecular simulation and finance. Major players today include IBM, Google, Microsoft, Honeywell and others who are developing quantum platforms and development environments. The largest publicly available, gate-based quantum computer, from IBM, has 53 qubits, but the race has just begun with both Google and IBM announcing plans to double the power of their systems every year. Since both hardware and algorithm innovations will be necessary for quantum computers to produce “quantum-advantaged” commercial applications, experts believe these are 3–5+ years away. In the meantime, companies such as Microsoft are delivering speed-ups with “quantum-inspired” solutions to problems such as drug discovery and portfolio optimization. These are algorithms that run on classical hardware but innovate on algorithms drawing on the principles of quantum mechanics.

What do you think will be some of the first commercial applications?

Quantum computers are expected to be especially well-suited to simulating natural systems defined by quantum mechanical properties. Therefore molecular simulation for drug discovery and materials design are expected to be major use cases. Additional areas include optimization problems (such as the traveling salesman problem) and eventually machine learning applications based on linear algebra.

Is it too early for CEOs to be building understanding, capabilities and options around quantum?

Innovations and capabilities of quantum computers are accelerating. Companies in certain industries, such as pharma or financial services, that first develop quantum algorithms and tap into quantum computers could build a significant advantage. Furthermore, because of the complexity of the technology, it will not be easy for laggards to buy their way in once the technology matures. Therefore, it is important for CEOs to understand the potential promise and impact on their business.

It has been said that mobile was the last big driver of tech driven growth. What will be the next drivers and where will quantum fit in?

Mobile, cloud computing, Internet of Things and AI have been the most important recent technology drivers. Quantum computing, in fact, exemplifies the cloud paradigm. It is quite possible that quantum algorithms running in the cloud will enable massive real-time optimizations of traffic patterns, energy consumption, and other large-scale resource utilization problems, bringing together AI, connected equipment, and quantum computing on a cloud platform. Some estimate that cloud computing has already created over $1T in value to end users of the technology. Because it can only be used for certain classes of problems, quantum computing will likely never reach those heights. But at maturity in 20–30 years, we believe that value creation from quantum computers will fall in the $500B+ range.

It has been said that AI will determine national competitiveness and security — does quantum have the same potential?

There is a dark side to quantum computing in that it can potentially be used to crack RSA encryption, which underlies nearly all internet security, so from a national security perspective, it is imperative to take quantum computing and cryptography seriously.

Achieving quantum supremacy first could lead to significant advantages for nations in material science, chemistry, finance, engineering, and machine learning — all critical economic drivers. While many of the most important milestones to date have been achieved by U.S.-based companies and universities, China, the UK, Europe and India are investing in national quantum computing programs to accelerate progress. VCs are also funding startups in the space. There is clearly a quantum race underway.