BCG Henderson Institute

Donald Trump’s unexpected win in the U.S. presidential election is unleashing an inevitable maelstrom of analysis: Why and how did it happen? As with the Brexit vote, almost all pollsters and pundits failed to foresee this result. But now that we have a clear outcome, it’s time to move forward and assess the implications for business and society.

So what are those implications, exactly?

Based on his campaign, Trump’s policies are directionally clear: Reduce personal and corporate taxation, invest in infrastructure, repeal the Affordable Care Act, tighten up on illegal immigration, strengthen law enforcement, and take a tougher stance on trade policy. It seems reasonable to use these intentions as a basis for forecasting the impact on taxes, trade, demand, employment, and mobility of labor. But even with these directions in mind, there’s a lot we just don’t know yet. What will be the administration’s take on science and technology? How will the Affordable Care Act be repealed? And what about the details of trade deals or infrastructure investment?

One thing we can say with confidence is that uncertainty will remain high for some time in politics, macroeconomics, and business, at both global and national levels. We can also assume that precise point forecasts are likely to be wrong. Likewise, we know that whatever our historical assumptions have been, many are likely to change as technology advances. And the impacts of policies will be highly specific in nature, degree, and speed for each industry and company.

To respond to this challenge, companies will need to become more sophisticated about strategy during uncertainty in five ways.

 

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