At the start of a new year, it’s human nature to want a crystal ball: What lies ahead, and how will it affect us? This feeling is particularly acute in times of uncertainty, when the ability to engage in meaningful foresight can feel elusive at best. And whether the world is objectively more volatile, it certainly feels that way to CEOs: Based on our analysis of earnings calls, 2025 saw a significant spike in discussions about uncertainty, with little sign of abating in 2026.

In our experience working with leadership teams, we’ve found that many get trapped in firefighting mode and often react to volatility by freezing up or reverting to gut instinct. But a minority of companies have a different response when confronted with an unpredictable future. In a recent survey of executives at 500 organizations, we identified clear patterns of behavior that differentiate organizations that report turning uncertainty into advantage through foresight practices from organizations that struggle to effectively use foresight.

By strategic foresight, we mean the disciplined practice of scanning for change, exploring multiple plausible futures, and using those insights to make better choices in the present. The field traces back to Cold War military planning but was embraced by the corporate world in the 1960s and ‘70s, when companies such as Royal Dutch Shell began using scenarios to rehearse possible shocks rather than betting on a single forecast. Today’s methods range from monitoring emerging signals to war games to scenario planning—with AI rapidly expanding capabilities.

Organizations that get strategic foresight right excel in two key areas. The first is process, with leaders that enable teams to view the full spectrum of unknowns on both real-time and long-term horizons. The second is mindset: Foresight leaders look beyond risk management to seek future opportunities in unpredictability and routinely rely on data with the help of a sophisticated foresight toolkit.

These foresight leaders, spread across industry, revenue size, and ownership model, don’t just report being better prepared. Companies with more advanced foresight capabilities also report a significant edge over their competition: Moving from standard to a more state-of-the-art level of foresight is associated with a 5% increase in financial performance. The good news for laggards? They can take concrete steps to avoid getting left behind.