The world order is on shaky ground. A financial crisis, the global pandemic, regional conflicts, and high inflation have spurred humanity’s departure from the relative stability and openness of the 1990s and early 2000s. What’s more, some 70 countries and territories have held or will hold national elections this year—some of which could have profound effects on both domestic populations and global institutions.

In this environment, traditional strategic planning is rendered obsolete. Rather than being predictive or attempting to be exhaustive, we need to think in terms of scenarios—alternative visions of how the world might look—and assess the business impact of potential geopolitical events under these assumptions. For instance, many experts didn’t expect Russia’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border to become a full-blown invasion, and many multinationals didn’t hedge against the risk of war. After the invasion in February 2022, corporations were left scrambling to handle disrupted supply chains and inflationary pressures. This crisis may have been an unlikely scenario, but it was a plausible one.

The critical takeaway is that we need to consider scenarios for the 2030s—a time horizon beyond the typical two-to-three-year corporate planning cycle, but not so distant that the scenarios are too theoretical or academic to be useful.