What is going on with Brexit? Where are all the bad outcomes the pundits predicted? Equities are higher than before the vote, consumers continue to buy confidently, and business sentiment is buoyant. If it weren’t for sterling trading significantly lower and a new UK government being in power, things would look like business as usual. Indeed, while Brexit remains prominent in UK headlines and policy circles, we observe in conversations with business leaders that most have shifted their attention back to their pre-Brexit challenges.

So, was Brexit just a storm in a tea cup? We think not, for these reasons:

• The idea that the UK economy has shrugged off the first chapter of Brexit is misguided. The impact may not be dramatic or visible, but it’s real.
• Brexit is a process, not an event. When we reach its second and subsequent chapters, political uncertainty is likely to return and affect the financial, institutional, and real economies.
• The political process risks focusing too narrowly on “getting Brexit right,” which would address the symptoms rather than the underlying socioeconomic dislocations that shaped the referendum outcome. These structural challenges, along with similar ones in other geographies, will drive up uncertainty in the global business environment.

Here we outline measures that leaders can take to minimize downside risks and shape outcomes to their advantage.