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Paul Swartz

Senior Economist



  • Syracuse University

BHI Affiliation
New York

Paul Swartz

Senior Economist

Paul is a Senior Economist and Director in Boston Consulting Group’s New York office. He works within the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute.

Paul previously worked at AB Bernstein (Sanford C. Bernstein), where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors. Earlier in his career, Paul focused on global macroeconomic issues while working at Goldman Sachs, the Council on Foreign Relations, and Bridgewater Associates. He serves as the vice-chair to the Dean’s Advisory Board (College of Art & Sciences) at Syracuse University.

Paul’s research includes structural, cyclical, and firm-level themes addressing both strategic and tactical challenges for clients. He has contributed to pieces in, Harvard Business Review, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The Washington Post, and other publications.

Recent Work

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Fortune | March 15, 2023

What SVB Means for the Inflation Fight and Recession Risk

The collapse of SVB raises a quandary for the Fed, which must continue to fight inflation while making sure that rising rates don’t further undermine financial stability.

Harvard Business Review | February 17, 2023

Why Firms Are Struggling with the U.S. Economy’s Soft Landing

While a soft landing may sound enticing, firms are facing a number of challenges. The typical recession playbook of retreating and cutting to fight another day is not suited for the challenges of today’s strong economy.

Fortune | January 30, 2023

A Soft Landing Is Playing Out–But Optimism Needs to Be for the Right Reasons

Inflation and wage growth have slowed, but unemployment remains at a record low, making a soft landing possible for the U.S. economy.

Fortune | December 12, 2022

How to Look Out When Economic Outlooks Don’t

Will the US and Europe be in recession in 2023? As the year comes to an end, the customary flow of economic outlooks is in full swing. Many outlooks are looking for something to break in the economy, yet the most obviously broken thing is the economic outlook itself.

Harvard Business Review | October 7, 2022

The Curse of the Strong U.S. Economy

Over the last many months we’ve stressed the continued strength in the US economy, particularly as it contrasts with weakness in Europe. But this strength is a curse as well as a blessing.

Fortune | September 27, 2022

Why the market vetoed the U.K.’s budget–and what it means for the changing nature of stimulus around the world

Jimmy Carter and the market veto of his budget in early 1980 come to mind when watching investors' harsh rebuke of the UK budget. In a new Fortune article we revisit the learning from that episode when high inflation was a clear constraint on stimulus tools - fiscal and monetary alike.