Paul is a Senior Economist and Executive Director in Boston Consulting Group’s New York office. He works within the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute.
Paul previously worked at AB Bernstein (Sanford C. Bernstein), where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors. Earlier in his career, Paul focused on global macroeconomic issues while working at Goldman Sachs, the Council on Foreign Relations, and Bridgewater Associates. He serves as the vice-chair to the Dean’s Advisory Board (College of Art & Sciences) at Syracuse University.
Paul’s research includes structural, cyclical, and firm-level themes addressing both strategic and tactical challenges for clients. He has contributed to pieces in CFR.org, Harvard Business Review, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The Washington Post, and other publications.
Though the pandemic has come and gone, the same cannot be said of the gyrations it has caused in consumer spending patterns.
Tactical fears for the US labor market have dominated economic debate, but this misses the labor market’s structural underpinnings. We are in an era of tightness that was briefly interrupted, not caused, by the pandemic.
A clearer picture has emerged of the structural legacies of recent shocks on major economies.
Despite the gloomy expectations of recent years, global growth has held up relatively well. However, a succession of shocks–the pandemic, inflation, and the Ukraine war–has tested the resilience of the U.S., Europe, and China in disparate ways.
The 2024 election will continue to drive the news cycle before November, occupying an outsized share of economic discourse.
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