Surprisingly, 2021 is ending with an abundance of gloom. In November, a prominent survey of consumer confidence was lower than it was at the depths of the COVID crisis in 2020; indeed, there were even times during the Global Financial Crisis that also had better confidence data. Weakening sentiment shows up in other gauges too. If we were to assess the economy on grump alone, one could think we’re in recessionary territory.

The economy cannot be blamed for the pervasive pessimism. The recovery is beating expectations for a second year in a row, with output easily above pre-pandemic levels. The rebound is also decidedly broad-based. For all the talk of a “K-shaped” recovery, this one has reached much broader segments of society than was the case post-2008.