Global trade has been transformed repeatedly throughout history, driven by a combination of new technologies and new policy rules that unlock their power. In the 1970s, the new technology was the container, and the new policy environment was the GATT, later the WTO, which drove down tariff barriers. The result was a dramatic drop in trade costs, a huge increase in trade, the emergence of global firms and value chains, and the integration of a vast range of countries into the global economy.

Digitization is now promising another transformation of international trade, one with similarly far-reaching consequences for economies, companies, and individuals. Our examination of the evidence shows global trade in the initial chapters of this transformation, with some industries and business models already deeply affected.

It is easy to overstate the short-term implications of digitization for global trade for the average firm; but it is equally easy to understate the long-term transformational potential of these technologies for almost everyone. Companies should recognize digitally enabled trade as a key emerging field, where early preparation has the potential to yield significant long-term dividends.

We argue for a de-averaged approach, in which companies assess their exposure to digitally enabled trade, integrate their digital and global strategies on this basis, and ground their choices in a sound understanding of how the relevant policy context is evolving and can be shaped.