In practice, leaders directing major change initiatives often misread the mood of their employees by over-relying on gut instinct. They make assumptions about how their employees should be feeling rather than trying to understand how their employees actually are feeling.

There are several problems with this. First, leaders misjudge the similarity of the current situation with their own previous experiences; second, they conflate their personal emotions with their employees’ emotions; and third, they overestimate their ability to recall past events accurately. They remember the beautiful sunset; they forget the near shipwreck.

Taken together, these factors make it difficult for a leader to get an accurate picture of their organization’s mood—a recipe for difficulties.

Change, of course, is inevitable. The opposite is standing pat. And for businesses, that can be deadly.