What is commonly referred to as the energy transition actually consists of dozens of discrete transitions that span industries such as power generation, transportation, and agriculture. These various pathways to net zero are often tightly connected, with overlapping value chains, technology innovations, adoption rates, and feedback effects.

Given this complexity, using first-order analysis or toy models to shape corporate strategy, policy, or investments will lead to dangerous blind spots and poor decision making. Leaders won’t know how to stack or sequence critical initiatives, nor will they be able to identify hidden risks and opportunities.

• A view that goes beyond the silos of any one industry, technology, value chain, or geography and considers the many stakeholders and factors at play.
• The ability to understand and assess the intricate interconnections of supply chains, materials, production capacities, labor, capital, and regulation, among other factors—which in turn allows us to identify potential synergies, avoid unintended consequences, and gain perspective on where technological innovations and substitutions are likely or essential.
• Guidance on predicting how energy and industrial systems may change over time due to their cascading impacts—and an understanding of the conditions under which certain transition pathways are economically feasible and can deliver a more sustainable, adaptable, and resilient future.