Two centers of gravity govern today’s digital world: the US West Coast and the East Coast of China. These gold coasts are home to 9 of the top 10 and 18 of the top 20 internet companies, when measured by market capitalization.
The leading companies in online search, social media, and e-commerce are all based in one or the other of these two regions. With a large head start over competitors, they are also the leading candidates to win in the next economic era.
The world is about to undergo a Schumpeterian cycle of creative destruction in which digital will spark widespread disruption in other industries. What has already happened to newspapers and record labels will soon happen to all industries. In the next five years, digital technology could conceivably disrupt a large share of the market capitalizations of industries as varied as automotive, financial services, health care, and retail.
The creation phase of the cycle is likely to occur further in the future. And we do not yet know who will capture the gains. Will the two centers of gravity hold, or will the gains be more widely distributed?
By default, the two gold coasts have a built-in edge: they have accumulated massive value, wealth, and power by taking advantage of the winner-take-all economics that govern many digital business models.
Yet, all companies and countries—including the US and China—have a vested interest in a winner-take-less outcome. The digital giants do not want to face a future of digital Balkanization and protectionist backlash, which is almost inevitable if other countries and companies are substantially excluded from the fruits of digital creation.