As business leaders enter the fall, a confluence of negatives is clouding their outlook on the economy. The big bounce back from last year’s trough has lost steam, stimulus is fading, and a plethora of softer economic data is weighing on sentiment. All of this unfolds against the backdrop of the pernicious Delta variant, reinforcing a downbeat narrative.

Yet, the economic outlook in the next year remains attractive once we examine what’s driving the current slowdown. To understand why, we need to look at the nature of the rebound, the risks and opportunities as the expansion is handed off to consumers, and the potential ways the current cycle could end.