For business leaders navigating the geopolitics of AI, the near-term signals are easy to read: infrastructure spending is rising, capital is abundant, and US firms still dominate in AI capacity. But long-term success may hinge on the flow of minds, rather than money.

In a world where AI breakthroughs shape competitive advantage, overlooking potential shifts in the talent pipeline may mean missing the next transformative innovation. Leaders who actively monitor and respond to these global talent shifts, and the innovation hubs that grow around them, will be better positioned to shape, not follow, the future of AI.

The US Remains a Magnet for AI Workers

Over the past three years, the US has welcomed more than 32,000 foreign AI workers. They now account for nearly 40% of AI roles at top tech firms, and they’re well compensated for their contributions. The average salary for these professionals is twice that offered by competitors in countries like Israel, Canada, France, or the UAE—and that’s not including the added draw of bonuses and stock options.

While foreign AI workers express concerns about shifts in US policy, this doesn’t explain the recent decrease in the inflow of AI talent to the US. The trend began before these shifts, driven by a more general slowdown in hiring and an overall reduction in global talent mobility.

And though recruiters expect a slight decline in the US’s ability to attract AI talent in the next year, they believe US tech firms will improve financial packages to help compensate for any policy shifts. But that isn’t the full story.