This research was published on March 14, 2025

Sinking consumer sentiment, wobbly financial markets, and a scattering of disappointing macroeconomic data are stoking fears of a U.S. recession. Even President Trump, saying he “hate(s) to predict things like that,” did not push back when recently asked by Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo whether he expects a recession this year.

Right now, there is no evidence today that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy have abruptly deteriorated in the eight weeks since President Trump took the reins. What has changed is the introduction of deliberate uncertainty about policy changes as a political strategy. “I don’t want people to know exactly what I’m doing—or thinking,” Trump once wrote. “I like being unpredictable.”

All of this means today’s executives are navigating a landscape where risks are up and visibility is down. Trump’s deliberate uncertainty has added new risks, but the death of the current economic expansion is not as clear cut as current public discourse likes to paint it.