This research was published on March 3rd, 2022 in Fortune

Over the last 40 years or so, policymakers have developed the habit of propping up the economy and markets—almost compulsively—at every turn. That has been true during big turns, such as 2008 and 2020, and small turns, such as in late 2018, when equities sold off 20% and the Federal Reserve duly cut rates to placate markets. It is also true of the perennial political desire to push growth and stretch economic cycles, last seen in the tax cuts passed in 2017, nine years into an economic expansion.

This pattern—call it a “stimulus machine”—has become the operating system of the modern cycle, relied on by investors, firms, and policymakers. But the ongoing upheaval in markets is unfamiliar territory.