This article is the third in a series on the future of energy in an increasingly uncertain world.

If you listen to the rhetoric, the outlook for the coal market can be summed up in one word: bleak. In Europe, political and social opposition to coal is mounting as efforts intensify to limit CO2 emissions. In the US, cheap and accessible shale gas is rapidly displacing coal. And in China, concerns about poor air quality and related health issues have caused demand for coal to fall three years in a row, from 2014 to 2016. So is coal demand about to decline globally? Is coal headed for the ash heap of history?

Such a development is unlikely. Without drastic changes in current consumption patterns, coal demand is likely to remain relatively stable in the years ahead, according to BCG’s Global Energy Scenario Model. The main reason: the unquenchable thirst for energy in numerous Asian developing countries, such as India and Indonesia.