Martin Reeves
Mihnea Moldoveanu
Adam Job
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
Paul Swartz
Matthew VegariTactical fears for the US labor market have dominated economic debate, but this misses the labor market’s structural underpinnings. We are in an era of tightness that was briefly interrupted, not caused, by the pandemic. Tactically, the labor market remains robust at the aggregate and sector levels even as wage growth slows. Structurally, we think a confluence of drivers underpins a durable era of tightness, delivering stronger growth across cycles.
An Era of Tightness: Thinking Tactically and Structurally About the Cooling US Labor Market
Tactical fears for the US labor market have dominated economic debate, but this misses the labor market’s structural underpinnings. We are in an era of tightness that was briefly interrupted, not caused, by the pandemic.